As a Beloved Internet Personality -- hey, I don't scoff at your delusions -- I'm occasionally called upon to give interviews about all things pop culture related, particularly when reporters can't get more interesting people to return their calls on deadline. And as you might imagine, this time of year -- what with the new fall shows premiering and all -- is the busy season for my side business as an insta-pundit.

And so it came to pass that a few weeks ago, I was doing an interview with a very pleasant woman from a major metropolitan daily. And as I shared my very deep thoughts about the prospects for the Fall TV season (Abridged version: catch up on your reading, America!), the talk inevitably turned to the fabulous TeeVee Dead Pool -- how long we've been doing it, how many people enter it, and can we expect to keep seeing our ol' pal Dead Pool for many falls to come.

"Oh," I said, with the mixture of self-deprecating modesty and piercing insight that has become my trademark, "I suspect I'll be doing the Dead Pool until I'm a toothless old man or I fall over dead." She laughed, and I laughed, and that was the end of our interview.

And after the interview ended, I wept for the next two hours.

Don't get me wrong -- I've got nothing against this whole Dead Pool business. And I'm not one of those TV writers you see so much of on the Internet these days -- the kind that pisses and moans about how bored they are by television and acting like they're doing you some big freakin' favor by deigning to write about a medium that's so obviously beneath their awe-inspiring literary talents. You know the kind I'm talking about. I actually like television, and not just the highfalutin' artsy stuff TV critics pretend to like. I'd better, since I spend so much time writing about the subject without actually getting -- what's the word I'm looking for here? Ah yes -- paid.

No, my despair over the realization the Dead Pool will outlast both me and my progeny has more to do with the futility of it all -- the overwhelming, Gatsby-esque, boats-against-the-current-borne-back-ceaselessly-into-the-past futility.

We've been doing this Dead Pool thing a good long while, since before TeeVee was an ill-conceived side project consigned to a ridiculously out-of-the-way .org URL. As for me, I've been providing these Dead Pool handicaps, in which I predict the odds of each new show falling before the Reaper's scythe, since 1997. To give you an idea of how long ago that was, back in those days, our most pressing concerns whether our stock portfolio was making us a lot of money or an obscene amount of money and whether or not the President liked the ladies a little too much. Put another way, this installment of my Dead Pool handicap marks my seventh consecutive year of spectacular failure at correctly picking the first show tossed off the airwaves. Seven years. Empires can rise and fall in that time. Trends can come and go. Why, the Italian government itself has probably changed hands 138 times since I've began calculating Dead Pool odds -- three or four times since I started writing this sentence.

And what do we as TV viewers have to show for it? Zilch. Bupkis. The big goose egg.

We've long since abandoned the romantic notion that we have any influence over the television industry. If Snell or Knauss or myself like a show that's slated for the abattoir and we write a thoughtful piece that heaps unfettered praise on everyone involved with the program, that show is still going to get canceled -- probably a lot quicker, once it's earned our seal of approval. The most statistically insignificant Nielsen sample has more sway over industry opinion than we do. Even on the rare occasion where something goes our way -- a show we like that's on the bubble gets renewed or an actor whose work we despise gets exiled to late-night infomercials -- the end result probably has more to do with the fates aligning or a favorable audience survey or the fact that actor just outright sucks than with any of the verbiage we spew.

But me, I like to cling to the illusion that the Dead Pool handicap should have some influence -- no matter how slight -- on what kind of shows make it to airwaves. Look at the categories we use to describe the new shows on the schedule. The Cliche-O-Meter tabulates all the hackneyed premises and warmed-over conceits you'll find a given show. The idea behind The Pitch category is basically that TV producers are incapable of coming up with new ideas for show without aping someone else's idea. In short, these are not the sort of things a reasonable person might consider complimentary.

Ah, but this is the TV industry we're talking about -- reasonable's got nothing to do with anything. Because we get the occasional e-mail from folks who hold honest-to-goodness jobs in the TV biz -- important jobs, too, and not just the kid who delivers Craig T. Nelson's meatball sandwich to the set of "The District." And the TV industry people are always very nice to us, going out of their way to say how much they enjoy the site in general and the Dead Pool in particular.

"That's very gracious of you," we want to tell them, "since we use the Dead Pool to belittle both you and your life's work."

Look, I don't know what you do for a living. Maybe you're in sales or P.R. or you're the hostess at a fairly swanky neighborhood restaurant. Now just imagine for a second that a gang of malcontents and nogoodniks set up a Web site that, every year and just for kicks, mercilessly ridiculed the way you went about your job. That would be annoying, I think, but not nearly so devastating as when complete strangers started writing in to the Web site, unbidden, to confirm that, yes, indeed, you were the worst restaurant hostess in a five-county radius, that you routinely forget to bring free bread to diners' tables and that your mispronunciations of the evening's specials were comical and inept. You would probably take such negative feedback to heart. You might vow to begin a rigorous course of self-improvement to become the best restaurant hostess you could be. At the very least, you'd make sure to start bringing people their damn free bread.

That's what you and I would do, anyhow. The TV industry puts up with seven years of me and my TeeVee pals suggestion that 90 percent of their new fall shows are derivative and uninteresting and what do they do? Ink Whoopi Goldberg to her own sitcom.

Ye gods.

So, this year, we're dropping all pretense of actually handicapping the Dead Pool. No, this year, we're assuming that every show is getting canceled, that they'll take the pipe before local stores even get around to putting up their Christmas decorations, and every last one of the 37 shows listed below will be replaced with reality programming.

Which brings us to our new category in this year's Dead Pool handicap. Joining our traditional show capsules is the new Reality Show category, which gives you a quick overview of the three dozen new shows hitting the airwaves by linking them with a thematically similar reality program based on the following key:

For Love or Money: Immediately forgettable.
American Idol: An embarrassment to everyone involved.
Paradise Hotel: Sexy, sexy, sexy!
Fear Factor: Avert your eyes, America.
Big Brother: An abomination in the eyes of God and man.
Survivor: A crowd-pleaser.
Joe Millionaire: Undoubtedly, a program of staggering genius.

All the other Dead Pool handicap features you've come to know and love -- the Cliche-O-Meter, the inscrutable odds, and of course, the well-informed, life-affirming malice -- remain unchanged from last year. In fact, they remain unchanged from when I started doing this back in 1997. And you can bet they'll still be alive and kicking when I pulling together Dead Pool 2022, featuring The All New Whoopi Goldberg Show.

Sunday

10-8

When It's On:	Sunday, 8 p.m., ABC
When It Starts:	Sept. 28
What It's Up Against:	Cold Case (CBS), The Simpsons (Fox), American Dreams (NBC), Charmed (WB)
What It's About:	A dimwitted pretty boy joins the L.A. sheriff's department where he's schooled in the ways of law enforcement by the wise and cranky Ernie Hudson.
The Pitch:	"It's Karate Kid meets Police Academy with a dash of The Rookies!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	An Aaron Spelling production that doesn't feature moose-jawed daughter Tori in a starring role is not something I, nor America, is willing to see.
Why It Won't:	There's always a chance Tori gets cast a moose-jawed street thug as part of some November sweeps stunt.
Reality Show:	For Love or Money
Odds:	8-1
Cliche-O-Meter:	Crimestoppers Hunky Dreamboat

Cold Case

When It's On:	Sunday, 8 p.m., CBS
When It Starts:	Sept. 28
What It's Up Against:	10-8 (ABC), The Simpsons (Fox), American Dreams (NBC), Charmed (WB)
What It's About:	A world-weary Philly homicide investigator takes on long-unsolved murder cases, using scientific techniques, we presume, and not a time machine.
The Pitch:	"It's CSI meets Quantum Leap, only without any quantum leaping!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	If the world-weary Philly homicide investigator is so good at solving crimes, how come they don't have her working on more pressing cases? Hmmm?
Why It Won't:	Every year, of the 80 or so cop shows that premiere, at least one or two hang around for most of the year, and who's to say Cold Case won't be one of them?
Reality Show:	For Love or Money
Odds:	10-1
Cliche-O-Meter:	Crimestoppers CSI Ripoff

The Ortegas

When It's On:	Sunday, 8:30 p.m., Fox
When It Starts:	Nov. 2
What It's Up Against:	10-8 (ABC), Cold Case (CBS), American Dreams (NBC), Charmed (WB)
What It's About:	To satisfy the show-biz ambitions of their lay-about son, a family -- headed by Cheech Marin, looking for all the world like he needs a special "package" from Tommy Chong -- builds a TV set in the backyard of their house for the kid to host his very own TV show. Real-life celebrities -- the ones without very good agents, apparently -- drop by for improved hijinks.
The Pitch:	"It's The Michael Essany Show, only with a script and a much goofier looking kid!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	Every indication is that The Ortegas is about as funny as a kick to the shins.
Why It Won't:	Thanks to baseball playoffs, The Ortegas won't premiere until after Halloween. We'll leave it to your judgment as to whether this counts as a trick or a treat.
Reality Show:	American Idol
Odds:	10-1
Cliche-O-Meter:	My Rotten Family Inside Hollywood Celebrity Cameo Stolen from the British Viva Variety

Tarzan

When It's On:	Sunday, 9 p.m., The WB
When It Starts:	Oct. 5
What It's Up Against:	Alias (ABC), Movie (CBS), Malcolm in the Middle (Fox), Law & Order: Criminal Intent (NBC)
What It's About:	A young man who has been raised by apes and looks very good with his shirt off is yanked out of Africa and deposited into midtown Manhattan, where he makes the ladies hot and bothered. Oh, and he uses his jungle powers to occasionally fight crime.
The Pitch:	"Remember how we took the whole Superman story, made Clark Kent a moody heartthrob and called it Smallville? Well, now we're doing the same thing with the whole Tarzan story!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	People tuning in expecting to see Cheetah the Chimp will be sorely disappointed.
Why It Won't:	Young girls -- those who aren't already swooning over the Sydney-Vaughn contretemps on Alias -- need somebody to swoon over, and the marble-mouthed Aussie playing Tarzan seems as good a choice as anyone.
Reality Show:	Paradise Hotel
Odds:	12-1
Cliche-O-Meter:	Hunky Dreamboat Movie Spinoff Crimestoppers

Arrested Development

When It's On:	Sunday, 9:30 p.m., Fox
When It Starts:	November 2
What It's Up Against:	Alias (ABC), Movie (CBS), Law & Order: Criminal Intent (NBC), Tarzan (WB)
What It's About:	Straight-laced decent guy returns to take care of his family of nutballs and screw-ups after dad goes to jail for securities fraud. With the great David Cross, the very good Jeffrey Tambor and Justine Bateman's kid brother.
The Pitch:	"It's Malcolm in the Middle, only Malcolm's all growed up and Hal's in federal prison!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	Word on the street is, Arrested Development is a very funny, off-beat show, so naturally, we're expecting the brain surgeons at Fox to kill it dead.
Why It Won't:	Well, there is that early November premiere date, delaying Fox's sinister machinations by a whole month and a half.
Reality Show:	Joe Millionaire
Odds:	9-2
Cliche-O-Meter:	My Rotten Family My Hometown

The Lyon's Den

When It's On:	Sunday, 10 p.m., NBC
When It Starts:	Sept. 28
What It's Up Against:	The Practice (ABC), Movie (CBS)
What It's About:	Rob Lowe gets while the getting's good from The West Wing to star as an idealistic lawyer who takes a job at a powerful Washington law firm which may or may not be hiding several dark secrets.
The Pitch:	"It's The West Wing only without the megalomaniacal writer/producer and the simpering, uncritical fanbase!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	Viewers used to watching Lowe scoot down hallways spouting off trivialities and verbal tics will cry foul any time the scene requires him to just sit at his desk and stare wordlessly into space.
Why It Won't:	It'll really chafe Sorkin's hide the longer this stays on air.
Reality Show:	Survivor
Odds:	15-1
Cliche-O-Meter:	Mystery Man Legal Eagles Star Vehicle Capitol Critters

Monday

Eve

When It's On:	Monday, 8:30 p.m., UPN
When It Starts:	Already Premiered
What It's Up Against:	Monday Primetime/Monday Night Football (ABC), Still Standing (CBS), Joe Millionaire (Fox), Fear Factor (NBC), 7th Heaven (WB)
What It's About:	International hip-hop recording sensation Eve stars as a Miami fashion designer on the make, and Jason George is her would-be-swain.
The Pitch:	"It's Girlfriends and The Parkers and Half & Half and basically any other sitcom UPN shows on Monday night!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	When it comes to international hip-hop recording sensations, I'm much more into Da Brat.
Why It Won't:	One of the few areas where UPN shows basic competency is churning out bland, relatively inoffensive comedies that carve out a niche for themselves on Monday night to the vast indifference of the populace at large.
Reality Show:	For Love or Money
Odds:	9-2
Cliche-O-Meter:	Sex and the Single Guy/Gal Star Vehicle

Las Vegas

When It's On:	Monday, 9 p.m., NBC
When It Starts:	Already Premiered
What It's Up Against:	Monday Night Football (ABC), Everybody Loves Raymond (CBS), Skin (Fox), Girlfriends (UPN), Everwood (WB)
What It's About:	Amid the splendor and excess of a fabulous Las Vegas casino, Nikki Cox struts her stuff as a highly-paid escort with a heart of gold. Hmmm? Oh, and James Caan heads a casino security team that solves crimes. But I'm still stuck on the Nikki Cox-as-a-hooker thing.
The Pitch:	"It's CSI: Miami, only set in Las Vegas!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	With the fellahs watching football and everybody loving Raymond, who will be left to bask in the brilliance of Las Vegas, save for us devoted foot-soldiers in the Nikki Cox Army?
Why It Won't:	In a just universe ruled by a loving God, there is a no a way show starring Nikki Cox as a highly-paid escort does not become a monstrously successful hit.
Reality Show:	Joe Millionaire
Odds:	5-1
Cliche-O-Meter:	CSI Ripoff Hunky Dreamboat Crimestoppers

Skin

When It's On:	Monday, 9 p.m., Fox
When It Starts:	October 20
What It's Up Against:	Monday Night Football (ABC), Everybody Loves Raymond (CBS), Las Vegas (NBC), Girlfriends (UPN), Everwood (WB)
What It's About:	She's a wealthy blonde from the west-side. He's an Irish-Mexican from a middle-class family. Together, they're just two crazy kids in love. Oh, and her dad is a major pornographer while his dad is the district attorney sworn to destroy the Porn King. You know, that old plotline.
The Pitch:	"It's Romeo & Juliet meets Deepthroat, only with all the good scenes cut out! From Romeo & Juliet, I mean!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	After a midnight visit from Justice Department stromtroopers, Fox cancels Skin and replaces it with Johnny Aschcroft's Olde Tyme Bible Adventure Hour
Why It Won't:	Fox has finally got its foot in the door with a prime-time show centered around hardcore pornography. Do you think Rupert Murdoch and the boys are really going to chicken out now when the prospect of full-frontal nudity is so tantalizingly close?
Reality Show:	Paradise Hotel
Odds:	9-2
Cliche-O-Meter:	XXX Hunky Dreamboat Ooh... Edgy!

Two and a Half Men

When It's On:	Monday, 9:30 p.m., CBS
When It Starts:	Already Premiered
What It's Up Against:	Monday Night Football (ABC), Skin (Fox), Las Vegas (NBC), Girlfriends (UPN), Everwood (WB)
What It's About:	A twitching, frenetic Jon Cryer splits with his wife and moves in with his swinging bachelor brother, played by Charlie Sheen. Oh, and Cryer brings his son along for the ride, since who wouldn't want the wilder of the two Sheen brothers dispensing fatherly advice?
The Pitch:	"It's My Two Dads -- only one of the dads is a horny uncle -- meets The Courtship of Eddie's Father -- with Eddie's father pretty horny, too!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	Viewers get frustrated after they can't figure out whether it's Cryer or Sheen who's supposed to be playing the half-a-man.
Why It Won't:	The CBS Monday Night Comedy Juggernaut has kept both Yes, Dear and Still Standing afloat, lo these many years, and both those shows cause severe cramping.
Reality Show:	Fear Factor
Odds:	9-1
Cliche-O-Meter:	My Rotten Family Sex and the Single Guy/Gal

Tuesday

Navy NCIS

When It's On:	Tuesday, 8 p.m., CBS
When It Starts:	Already Premiered
What It's Up Against:	8 Simple Rules... (ABC), TBA (Fox), Whoopi (NBC), One on One (UPN), Gilmore Girls (WB)
What It's About:	Mark Harmon leads an elite corps of Navy crime scene investigators who devote their talents to -- and I know this may be hard to follow -- investigating crimes.
The Pitch:	"It's a JAG-CSI hybrid set to the jaunty beat of the Village People's 'In the Navy!'"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	The audience who watches every last one of CBS's People-Solving-Crimes shows suddenly asks en masse, "How many more of these goddamn things are we going to waste our time watching?"
Why It Won't:	My parents love JAG and all its attendant spinoffs, and they will personally tear Les Moonves from limb to limb if he ever so much as looks at the mighty JAG empire cross-eyed. And I suspect your parents would, too.
Reality Show:	Survivor
Odds:	50-1
Cliche-O-Meter:	CSI Ripoff Star Vehicle Crimestoppers

TBA

Whoopi

When It's On:	Tuesday, 8 p.m., NBC
When It Starts:	Already Premiered
What It's Up Against:	8 Simple Rules... (ABC), Navy NCIS (CBS), TBA (Fox), One on One (UPN), Gilmore Girls (WB)
What It's About:	Just about the worst show we could possibly imagine.
The Pitch:	"It's all of those terrible jokes Whoopi Goldberg told at the Oscars... as a weekly series!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	Even acknowledging this show's existence makes me feel dirty and wrong.
Why It Won't:	On some level, I've always suspected that God has it in for me, and this is just more evidence, right above all those Oakland A's playoff losses and just below my senior prom.
Reality Show:	Big Brother
Odds:	Even Money
Cliche-O-Meter:	Ooh... Edgy! Ethnic Slurs Star Vehicle

I'm With Her

When It's On:	Tuesday, 8:30 p.m., ABC
When It Starts:	Already Premiered
What It's Up Against:	Navy NCIS (CBS), TBA (Fox), Happy Family (NBC), All of Us (UPN), Gilmore Girls (WB)
What It's About:	A writer you've probably never heard on draws on his life story of being a writer nobody's ever heard of who winds up dating Brooke Shields to give us a weekly romantic comedy about a school teacher nobody's ever heard of who winds up dating the sitcom equivalent of Brooke Shields (Teri Polo).
The Pitch:	"It's Notting Hill with far fewer British accents!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	The romantic ups-and-downs of dating a famous person are probably a lot more interesting to famous people involved than they are to you and me.
Why It Won't:	Hey, it's not like the show stars Brooke Shields.
Reality Show:	For Love or Money
Odds:	5-2
Cliche-O-Meter:	Inside Hollywood Sex and the Single Guy/Gal Celebrity Cameo

Happy Family

When It's On:	Tuesday, 8:30 p.m., NBC
When It Starts:	Already Premiered
What It's Up Against:	I'm With Her (ABC), Navy NCIS (CBS), TBA (Fox), All of Us (UPN), Gilmore Girls (WB)
What It's About:	Married couple John Larroquette and Christine Baranski finally appear to rid themselves of their three idiot spawn, but like mildew in your shower tiling, the useless little bastards keep coming back.
The Pitch:	"It's exactly like Family Ties, only instead of a loving, nurturing family unit, everyone in this family hates one another!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	The stink of Whoopi will taint all shows within a 50-mile radius of it on the schedule.
Why It Won't:	In these troubled times, if we can't find merriment and amusement from the misery and despair of others, then, brother, we just ain't trying.
Reality Show:	Fear Factor
Odds:	3-1
Cliche-O-Meter:	My Rotten Family

All of Us

When It's On:	Tuesday, 8:30 p.m., UPN
When It Starts:	Already Premiered
What It's Up Against:	I'm With Her (ABC), Navy NCIS (CBS), TBA (Fox), Happy Family (NBC), Gilmore Girls (WB)
What It's About:	A TV reporter woos his new girlfriend, much to the dismay of his ex-wife. But everybody has to make nice because of the children. Any similarities between this bilge and the lives of Will Smith and Jada Pinkett -- executive producers of All of Us -- is doubtlessly coincidental.
The Pitch:	"It's like the courtship of Will Smith and Jada Pinkett, featuring two different people you neither recognize nor care about!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	If I wanted to watch Will Smith court Jada Pinkett, I'd... come to think of it, I don't really care to watch Will Smith court Jada Pinkett at all.
Why It Won't:	Everything Will Smith touches -- Ali, Men in Black, DJ Jazzy Jeff -- turns to gold.
Reality Show:	For Love or Money
Odds:	5-1
Cliche-O-Meter:	Inside Hollywood Celebrity Cameo My Rotten Family

One Tree Hill

When It's On:	Tuesday, 9 p.m., WB
When It Starts:	Already Premiered
What It's Up Against:	According to Jim (ABC), The Guardian (CBS), 24 (Fox), Frasier (NBC), Rock Me Baby (UPN)
What It's About:	Two brothers from different mothers wind up on the same high school basketball team. This being the WB, the two handsome lads act all mopey.
The Pitch:	"It's Dawson's Creek meets The Harlem Globetrotters on Gilligan's Island! Sort of! Because of the basketball!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	I think I speak for all cranky old people when I say that I've had it up to here with mopey teens.
Why It Won't:	There is so little buzz surrounding this show, it just might coast for months on benign indifference before anyone -- including WB executives -- realize that it's still on the air.
Reality Show:	For Love or Money
Odds:	4-1
Cliche-O-Meter:	Hunky Dreamboat My Rotten Family

Rock Me Baby

When It's On:	Tuesday, 9 p.m., UPN
When It Starts:	Already Premiered
What It's Up Against:	According to Jim (ABC), The Guardian (CBS), 24 (Fox), Frasier (NBC), One Tree Hill (WB)
What It's About:	A radio shock jock must balance his raunchy on-air persona with his bland, milquetoast family life.
The Pitch:	"It's Howard Stern's Private Parts, with Dan Cortese replacing Howard Stern and Carl Anthony Payne filling in for Bababoey!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	Nobody knows how to suck the laughs out of a show quite like UPN.
Why It Won't:	A few years back, MTV did one of those Biography-style profiles of Dan Cortese which begins by quoting an article written by yours truly. The longer Dan Cortese stays in the public eye, the longer my half-baked punditry remains visible beyond the six or seven of you reading TeeVee.
Reality Show:	Fear Factor
Odds:	7-2
Cliche-O-Meter:	My Rotten Family

The Mullets

When It's On:	Tuesday, 9:30 p.m., UPN
When It Starts:	Already Premiered
What It's Up Against:	Less Than Perfect (ABC), The Guardian (CBS), 24 (Fox), Good Morning, Miami (NBC), One Tree Hill (WB)
What It's About:	Two brothers have comical haircuts and do really stupid things while their stepfather looks on in vague disapproval. That's it -- that's the show.
The Pitch:	"It's Homeboys from Outer Space for a new generation of disinterested UPN viewers!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	Someone at UPN will wake up from a booze-induced stupor long enough to wipe the drool off his or her chin only to exclaim, "Sweet Jesus, we're broadcasting a show called The Mullets!"
Why It Won't:	I'm sure stranger things have happened -- I just can't imagine what they could possibly be.
Reality Show:	American Idol
Odds:	Even Money
Cliche-O-Meter:	My Rotten Family

Go to part 2...

Wednesday

It's All Relative

When It's On:	Wednesday, 8:30 p.m., ABC
When It Starts:	Oct. 1
What It's Up Against:	60 Minutes II (CBS), A Minute with Stan Hooper (Fox), Ed (NBC), Smallville (WB), Enterprise (UPN)
What It's About:	She's the daughter of two gay men; he's the son of a blue-collar Irish-Catholic family. And when these two crazy kids fall for another, get ready for 30 minutes of love, cringe-inducing slurs, and awkward silence where the laughter should be.
The Pitch:	"It's All in the Family for the new millennium! And this time, Meathead's a girl! And his parents are gay!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	America is just not ready to embrace a show featuring blue-collar Irish Catholics.
Why It Won't:	America, sadly, is very ready to accept a show where rote put-downs and predictable insults pass for comedy.
Reality Show:	Big Brother
Odds:	5-2
Cliche-O-Meter:	My Rotten Family Ethnic Slurs

A Minute with Stan Hooper

When It's On:	Wednesday, 8:30 p.m., Fox
When It Starts:	Oct. 29
What It's Up Against:	It's All Relative (ABC), 60 Minutes II (CBS), Ed (NBC), Smallville (WB), Enterprise (UPN)
What It's About:	A Charles Kuralt-esque newsman moves from the big city to a small Midwestern hamlet, only to discover the town is filled with the kind of eccentric zanies that only seem to live in TV small towns.
The Pitch:	"It's a 'Weekend Update' segment from Saturday Night Live meets Newhart! With just a touch of Norm -- the Norm Macdonald part!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	The show seems genuinely amusing and worth your attention. Then again, you could say the same thing about Andy Richter Controls the Universe, and you don't find that on Fox's schedule these days, do you?
Why It Won't:	At least Fox waited a year or so to empty its clip into Andy Richter.
Reality Show:	Joe Millionaire
Odds:	6-1
Cliche-O-Meter:	Inside Hollywood My Hometown

Jake 2.0

When It's On:	Wednesday, 9 p.m., UPN
When It Starts:	Already Premiered
What It's Up Against:	The Bachelor (ABC), The King of Queens (CBS), The Bernie Mac Show (Fox), The West Wing (NBC), Angel (WB)
What It's About:	A gawky nerd -- or at least, TV's version of one, since this allegedly gawky nerd is far better looking than me and my gawky nerd pals -- gains superpowers after he accidentally absorbs one too many nanites. Yes, you read that right -- nanites.
The Pitch:	"It's The Greatest American Hero crossed with the miracle of nanotechnology!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	The American viewing public figures that it missed Jake 1.0 and decides that the sequel will be too difficult to follow.
Why It Won't:	Nanite-mania runs wild from coast to coast.
Reality Show:	Survivor
Odds:	3-1
Cliche-O-Meter:	Silly Sci-Fi For the Kids Hunky Dreamboat Crimestoppers

Karen Sisco

When It's On:	Wednesday, 10 p.m., ABC
When It Starts:	Oct. 1
What It's Up Against:	The Brotherhood of Poland, New Hampshire (CBS), Law & Order (NBC)
What It's About:	The U.S. marshal from Out of Sight -- we suspect her name might be Karen Sisco -- tracks down bad guys and dates worse guys.
The Pitch:	"It's Out of Sight, only with the chick from Spy Kids replacing the pop singer with the gi-normous hiney!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	Years ago, after Carla Gugino left Spin City, ABC airbrushed her out of reruns like she was some out-of-favor Soviet minister. So who's to say there's not someone at Disney who just likes messing with Gugino's head?
Why It Won't:	The word on the street is that this is among the better new shows and the fact that it airs on the worst network not named UPN should not be held against it.
Reality Show:	Survivor
Odds:	15-1
Cliche-O-Meter:	Movie Spinoff Crimestoppers

The Brotherhood of Poland, New Hampshire

When It's On:	Wednesday, 10 p.m., CBS
When It Starts:	Already Premiered
What It's Up Against:	Karen Sisco (ABC), Law & Order (NBC)
What It's About:	Lech Walesa and his plucky Solidarity Union ban together in an Iron Curtain-era Warsaw to fi... whoops. Wrong Polish brotherhood.
The Pitch:	"It a David E. Kelley show -- the kind set in a quirky, eccentric Picket Fences-like small town instead of a quirky, eccentric Ally McBeal-like law firm!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	After girls club got frog-walked off the air last fall, perhaps viewers are finally getting wise to the fact that David E. Kelley is a one-note fraud.
Why It Won't:	Hey, at least it's not alarmingly-thin attorneys arguing fanciful points of law... not until Sweeps, at any rate.
Reality Show:	For Love Or Money
Odds:	10-1
Cliche-O-Meter:	My Hometown

Thursday

Threat Matrix

When It's On:	Thursday, 8 p.m., ABC
When It Starts:	Already Premiered
What It's Up Against:	Survivor (CBS), Tru Calling (Fox), Friends (NBC), Steve Harvey's Big Time (WB), WWE Smackdown! (UPN)
What It's About:	Just like in real life, an elite team of government agents works to keep our nation safe from terrorist attacks. Unlike in real life, they presumably don't treat the Bill of Rights as a polite suggestion.
The Pitch:	"It's exactly like The Agency, only this time, it's up against Survivor and Friends, so even fewer people will watch!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	Shouldn't television be trying to, you know, take our minds off the terror?
Why It Won't:	If you don't watch this show, your name's going on John Ashcroft's list, Osama.
Reality Show:	Big Brother
Odds:	Even Money
Cliche-O-Meter:	Capitol Critters Crimestoppers

Tru Calling

When It's On:	Thursday, 8 p.m., Fox
When It Starts:	Oct. 30
What It's Up Against:	Threat Matrix (ABC), Survivor (CBS), Friends (NBC), Steve Harvey's Big Time (WB), WWE Smackdown! (UPN)
What It's About:	Eliza Dushku sees dead people. And talks to them. And uses those conversations to go and fight crime.
The Pitch:	"It's Early Edition meets The Sixth Sense cross-pollinated with Buffy the Vampire Slayer and Six Feet Under.
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	I don't mean to keep sounding like a broken record about Fox and how it treats shows, but remember all that stuff I've said so far about how Fox kills sitcoms dead if they don't immediately garner a sizable audience? Well, the network treats shows like Tru Calling even worse.
Why It Won't:	That Eliza Dushku sure is purty.
Reality Show:	For Love or Money
Odds:	9-2
Cliche-O-Meter:	Silly Sci-Fi For the Kids Crimestoppers Mystery Man

Steve Harvey's Big Time

When It's On:	Thursday, 8 p.m., WB
When It Starts:	Already Premiered
What It's Up Against:	Threat Matrix (ABC), Survivor (CBS), Tru Calling (Fox), Friends (NBC), WWE Smackdown! (UPN)
What It's About:	People will do just about anything to get themselves on television -- or, at least, get themselves on the WB. Which is probably more poignant than the producers intended.
The Pitch:	"It's the Stupid Human Tricks segment from Letterman, hosted by one of The Kings of Comedy! No, not Cedric the Entertainer... nope, not Bernie Mac... he's got a show already... no, not D.L Hughley... um..."
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	Admit it -- before reading this description you had no idea this show was even on the air. Am I right?
Why It Won't:	Even after reading this description, WB executives probably aren't sharp enough to realize this show is on the air.
Reality Show:	American Idol
Odds:	5-2
Cliche-O-Meter:	Viva Variety Star Vehicle

The O.C.

When It's On:	Thursday, 9 p.m., Fox
When It Starts:	Already Premiered
What It's Up Against:	Extreme Makeover (ABC), CSI (CBS), Will & Grace (NBC), What I Like About You (WB), WWE Smackdown! (UPN)
What It's About:	A teen pretty-boy with problems -- no, they aren't the exclusive property of the WB -- moves to Orange County, California, where apparently people are rich, white, decadent and full of secrets. Guess he's living in Fountain Valley.
The Pitch:	"It's Beverly Hills 90210 meets Dawson's Creek! But nothing at all like Pasadena!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	Well, it did premiere way back in the summertime, so it's very possible that Fox could be sick at the sight of it.
Why It Won't:	The show has scored high ratings during the summer, and Fox isn't dumb enough to leave a ratings success in this time slot after the baseball playoffs so that the gang from CSI can merrily kick its head in.
Reality Show:	Survivor
Odds:	Off the Board
Cliche-O-Meter:	My Rotten Family Hunky Dreamboat

Coupling

When It's On:	Thursday, 9:30 p.m., NBC
When It Starts:	Already Premiered
What It's Up Against:	Extreme Makeover (ABC), CSI (NBC), The O.C. (Fox), Run of the House (WB), WWE Smackdown! (UPN)
What It's About:	Six American actors find the scripts for a very funny British show called "Coupling" and, after replacing words like "lift" and "loo" with "elevator" and "toilet," wind up putting on their own production.
The Pitch:	"It's the American version of the British version of Friends!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	You can watch the original series on BBC America without having to endure Rena Sofer, you know.
Why It Won't:	NBC is so desperate to find something to replace Friends that if this doesn't work, the only thing left to do will be to dub reruns into Spanish and repurpose the show next fall as Amigos. (Note to NBC: if you wind up doing this, I want my cut.)
Reality Show:	Paradise Hotel
Odds:	10-1
Cliche-O-Meter:	Stolen from the British Sex and the Single Guy/Gal XXX

Run of the House

When It's On:	Thursday, 9:30 p.m., WB
When It Starts:	Already Premiered
What It's Up Against:	Extreme Makeover (ABC), CSI (NBC), The O.C. (Fox), Coupling (NBC), WWE Smackdown! (UPN)
What It's About:	Mom and Dad are away -- not dead, not on business, not escaping prosecution, just away -- leaving three 20-year-old kids and a teen-ager to live unsupervised in their home. The putative head of this household? Joey Lawrence. Whoa, indeed.
The Pitch:	"It's Don't Tell Mom the Babysitter's Dead, without a dead babysitter and no mom!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	The WB is so bad at developing sitcoms, you start to wonder why it even bothers trying.
Why It Won't:	Between this, The Mullets, and Whoopi, only one can get shitcanned first, and when you're a hapless WB sitcom, a one-in-three chance is something you leap at.
Reality Show:	Paradise Hotel
Odds:	2-1
Cliche-O-Meter:	My Rotten Family Sex and the Single Guy/Gal

Friday

Joan of Arcadia

When It's On:	Friday, 8 p.m., CBS
When It Starts:	Sept. 26
What It's Up Against:	George Lopez (ABC), Wanda at Large (Fox), Miss Match (NBC), Movie (UPN), Reba (WB)
What It's About:	What if God were one of us? Just a slob like one of us? Just a stranger on the bus who kept appearing to Amber Tamblyn, much to confusion of parents Joe Mantegna and Mary Steenburgen? What then, hmmm?
The Pitch:	"It's Touched by an Angel meets Oh, God, with enough My So Called Life to keep the young people interested!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	I much prefer Al-Jazeera TV's Mohammed of Mecca.
Why It Won't:	I don't know about you, but I'm not about to get on the Almighty's bad side by poking fun at this show any more than I have.
Reality Show:	Survivor
Odds:	5-1
Cliche-O-Meter:	Silly Sci-Fi For the Kids My Rotten Family Mystery Man

Miss Match

When It's On:	Friday, 8 p.m., NBC
When It Starts:	Sept. 26
What It's Up Against:	George Lopez (ABC), Joan of Arcadia (CBS), Wanda at Large (Fox), Movie (UPN), Reba (WB)
What It's About:	By day, Alicia Silverstone's a divorce lawyer who rends marriages asunder. But by night, she's a matchmaker who brings the lonely-hearted together. Revel in the complex duality that is Alicia Silverstone.
The Pitch:	"It's Love Connection for the Clueless generation!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	It would seem that the type of viewer who would want to watch a show about a cute-as-a-button divorce lawyer helping people find true love would spend Friday night out of the town trying to find true love of their own instead of in front of the TV. But who am I to tell NBC it's business?
Why It Won't:	After all, enough dewy-eyed viewers tuned in to keep Providence on the air longer than it should have lasted.
Reality Show:	Paradise Hotel
Odds:	10-1
Cliche-O-Meter:	Star Vehicle Sex and the Single Guy/Gal

Married to the Kellys

When It's On:	Friday, 8:30 p.m., ABC
When It Starts:	Oct. 3
What It's Up Against:	Joan of Arcadia (CBS), Luis (Fox), Miss Match (NBC), Movie (UPN), Like Family (WB)
What It's About:	A sophisticated urbanite -- or whatever it is a sophisticated urbanite would be called if he were played by Breckin Meyer -- moves to fly-over country so that he and the new wife can live with her extended family of zany eccentrics.
The Pitch:	"It's Meet the Parents, with Robert DeNiro's part played by a gaggle of eccentric Midwesterners!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	You know, a lot of people live in places other than New York and California and they're bound to get seriously annoyed by all of these shows portraying them as well-mannered rubes sooner rather than later.
Why It Won't:	If you can't laugh Midwesterners, who can you laugh at? (The answer: Puerto Ricans, if Luis is any sort of arbiter of comedic tastes.)
Reality Show:	American Idol
Odds:	7-2
Cliche-O-Meter:	My Rotten Family My Hometown

Luis

When It's On:	Friday, 8:30 p.m., Fox
When It Starts:	Already Premiered
What It's Up Against:	Married to the Kellys (ABC), Joan of Arcadia (CBS), Miss Match (NBC), Movie (UPN), Like Family (WB)
What It's About:	Gifted character actor Luis Guzman atones for an apparently egregious past wrong, by appearing in a toothless comedy about a pigheaded doughnut shop owner in Spanish Harlem and all his obnoxious, smart-mouthed tenants.
The Pitch:	"It's Sanford & Son set to the saucy beat of George Lopez!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	Fox's Friday night schedule has always been a big, sucking maw, and if you only had one word to describe Luis, "sucking" would be a pretty good choice.
Why It Won't:	If Luis can land on the fall schedule, you don't suppose Fox has anything better in reserve, do you?
Reality Show:	Fear Factor
Odds:	2-1
Cliche-O-Meter:	Ethnic Slurs Star Vehicle Ooh... Edgy!

Like Family

When It's On:	Friday, 8:30 p.m., WB
When It Starts:	Already Premiered
What It's Up Against:	Married to the Kellys (ABC), Joan of Arcadia (CBS), Luis (Fox), Miss Match (NBC), Movie (UPN),
What It's About:	A white single mother and her son move in with her black friend's sizable family. Presumably, lessons about strength in diversity are learned amid the laughter.
The Pitch:	"It's Ebony and Ivory -- The Series!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	The sheer contrivance of Like Family's premise is breathtaking in both its audacity and stupidity
Why It Won't:	Since the inexplicably successful Reba is Like Family's lead-in, clearly breathtaking stupidity is not a barrier to entry for the people watching the WB on a Friday night.
Reality Show:	Big Brother
Odds:	3-1
Cliche-O-Meter:	My Rotten Family

Hope & Faith

When It's On:	Friday, 9 p.m., ABC
When It Starts:	Sept. 26
What It's Up Against:	JAG (CBS), Boston Public (Fox), Dateline NBC (NBC), Movie (UPN), Grounded for Life (WB)
What It's About:	A failed soap opera actress, played by non-failed soap opera actress Kelly Ripa, returns to her Midwest hometown to live with her more buttoned-down sister, played by the not-at-all buttoned-down Faith Ford.
The Pitch:	"It's Encore Encore featuring half of Live With Regis & Kelly!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	Perhaps I'm the only person to feel this way, but Kelly Ripa has always kind of creeped me out. Something about the eyes, something that suggests she's somewhat unhinged and not in that zany, free-spirited "ha, ha, Aunt Kelly forgot to wear pants again" way but more of a "better wear a helmet around her" vibe. Even as I type this, I'm afraid she's sneaking up behind me to inf... OWWWWW! SWEET JESUS, MY JUGULAR! GET HER OFF ME! GET HER OFF ME! OH GOD IN HEAVEN, WHEN WILL THIS SUFFERING END? ARR... Oh... just my cat.
Why It Won't:	Well, a show that includes Ted McGinley in its cast has to stay on the air one of these days...
Reality Show:	American Idol
Odds:	3-1
Cliche-O-Meter:	Star Vehicle Inside Hollywood My Rotten Family My Hometown

All About the Andersons

When It's On:	Friday, 9:30 p.m., WB
When It Starts:	Already Premiered
What It's Up Against:	Life with Bonnie (ABC), JAG (CBS), Boston Public (Fox), Dateline NBC (NBC), Movie (UPN)
What It's About:	That nice Anthony Anderson from The Barbershop stars as a nice young man named Anthony Anderson whose trying to break into show business. To cut down on expenses, he and his ridiculously cute son move in with Mom and Dad. Dad is a bit of a grouch.
The Pitch:	"It's Good Times with a meaner John Amos!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	I'm sure Anderson and Amos give it their best, but until the WB creates a sitcom that doesn't stir murderous rage within my breast, I'm just going to have to labor under the assumption that this is more of the same.
Why It Won't:	The WB just gives up and starts airing Anderson's scenes from The Barbershop in this time slot instead, hoping no one notices.
Reality Show:	For Love or Money
Odds:	9-2
Cliche-O-Meter:	My Rotten Family My Hometown Inside Hollywood

The Handler

When It's On:	Friday, 10 p.m., CBS
When It Starts:	Sept. 26
What It's Up Against:	20/20 (ABC), Boomtown (NBC)
What It's About:	Just as Edward Woodward was... The Equalizer and Joe Penny and William Conrad were... Jake and The Fatman, now Joe Pantoliano comes to CBS as... The Handler. He... um... handles things.
The Pitch:	"It's like every other procedural crime drama on CBS!"
Why It Will Be The First To Go:	CBS begins Friday nights with a show about a sullen teen who talks to God, follows that with a show about a military lawyer that only my parents find endlessly fascinating and wrap the evening up with Joey Pants. So much for thematic flow.
Why It Won't:	One phone call from Joey Pants, and Angelo, Numbers, Freddy Knuckles and The Shiv are standing at your front door, wondering why you're not watching the show.
Reality Show:	Joe Millionaire
Odds:	10-1
Cliche-O-Meter:	Crimestoppers Mystery Man Star Vehicle